Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 0.018627 0.021098 0.023778 0.026902 0.030444 0.034336 0.038941
2025-08-03 0.014481 0.017821 0.021757 0.026739 0.032885 0.040229 0.049684
2025-08-10 0.012225 0.015924 0.020535 0.026715 0.034793 0.045016 0.058973
2025-08-17 0.010468 0.014280 0.019257 0.026243 0.035821 0.048527 0.066728
2025-08-24 0.009401 0.013350 0.018716 0.026559 0.037765 0.053256 0.076398
2025-08-31 0.008392 0.012350 0.017925 0.026371 0.038894 0.056853 0.084713
2025-09-07 0.007787 0.011841 0.017740 0.026980 0.041151 0.062175 0.095942
2025-09-14 0.006894 0.010802 0.016661 0.026119 0.041084 0.063983 0.101952
2025-09-21 0.006259 0.010086 0.015986 0.025784 0.041747 0.066896 0.109862
2025-09-28 0.005610 0.009280 0.015088 0.024994 0.041579 0.068433 0.115623
2025-10-05 0.005405 0.009170 0.015282 0.025979 0.044371 0.074952 0.130180
2025-10-12 0.005149 0.008948 0.015266 0.026597 0.046577 0.080649 0.143806
2025-10-19 0.004931 0.008778 0.015334 0.027385 0.049181 0.087307 0.159862
2025-10-26 0.004569 0.008324 0.014874 0.027203 0.050053 0.091012 0.170960
2025-11-02 0.004269 0.007953 0.014525 0.027179 0.051190 0.095261 0.183409
2025-11-09 0.003933 0.007486 0.013959 0.026699 0.051424 0.097841 0.192882
2025-11-16 0.003739 0.007266 0.013827 0.027021 0.053198 0.103444 0.208723
2025-11-23 0.003496 0.006931 0.013450 0.026829 0.053946 0.107115 0.221011
2025-11-30 0.003370 0.006815 0.013483 0.027449 0.056351 0.114228 0.240950
2025-12-07 0.003086 0.006356 0.012806 0.026572 0.055631 0.114982 0.247641
2025-12-14 0.002884 0.006050 0.012407 0.026232 0.055984 0.117949 0.259284
2025-12-21 0.002653 0.005662 0.011811 0.025428 0.055282 0.118635 0.265992
2025-12-28 0.002613 0.005677 0.012052 0.026430 0.058562 0.128074 0.293028